NFL’s Top 12 Offenses for ‘23

Today’s NFL is all about offense. It’s a pass-heavy league with most teams running a shot-gun spread offense. Sprinkled in with traditional under center pro style, it helps teams specifically in the running-game. There is also this thing now called, “RPO” or as the acronym is known as the “run pass option” that has been implemented in all levels of football. From Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, a team must have the right quarterback along with the right offensive line to run RPO plays effectively. They also must have the right culture built by a team that’s led by the right head coach.

Yes, Week #1 is still four months away, but it is that time of year again to project who will lead the way to the top of the NFL in offenses. Whose team will be led by a high flying air attack that will give even the best defenses nightmares? Who will have a dominant running game that will wear out a defense late in games?  Who will separate the big from the little?

Let’s project the Top 12 Offenses for the 2022 NFL season:

#12. Minnesota Vikings

Gone is the old school-defensive minded head coach like Mike Zimmer. With an offensive guy in former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell leading the Purple and Gold, Kirk Cousins should be much improved throwing the football. Plus, the line will be bolstered and the offensive scheme will be a better fit. That means Justin Jefferson should see more targets and theoretically, more yards than he did last season. There is scary potential for this offensive unit.

#11. New Orleans Saints

Jameis Winston may seem like an average quarterback, but with the way new head coach  Dennis Allen wants to play football with a top-notched defense, Winston can get the job done. He will need No. 19 overall pick Trevor Penning to help protect his blindside as the starting left tackle position. If Winston is sacked less, running back Alvin Kamara and their wide receivers are going to be open for big plays and a bunch of points. Looking at one side of the ball, the Saints have all those pieces to be an attacking offensive team.

#10. Miami Dolphins

This offense has “Top 10” written all over it. Like every offense, it will come down to Tua’s ability to improve as a quarterback. He has a winning record as a starter. The biggest addition to the fish this year included Star Wide Receiver Tyreke Hill or as they call him, “Cheetah.” Tua completed 113 passes for a 71.5 completion percentage. If Tua can throw the ball deep on a go route to Hill, watch out people.

#9. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is still your quarterback, “Packer’s Nation”. Even without Davante Adams who was traded to Las Vegas, number 12 can still lead the way. Rodgers had great support from the Packer’s O-line and is expected to do it again in 2022. Rodgers was pressured on just 20.1% of dropbacks which was the third fewest in the league. He led the league with a 122.6 passer rating. Moving forward, this offensive group will help “The Pack” maintain an advantage over their opponents. Second round pick Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard all look to become the replacement for Adams’ who left Green Bay.

#8. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs head into OTA’s with a completely different receiving core. Plus they begin with a brutal set of opponents early in their schedule. Last year, Kansas City used motion on an NFL-high 808 snaps, so it is no surprise they will have some new tricks to their offense this year. The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and one thing’s for sure, he will still be connecting to tight end Travis Kelce on short passes. This offense will take a step back, but the team can still win a lot of games and avenge their AFC Championship game loss last January.

#7. Dallas Cowboys

It will be a work in progress in Big D for the offensive line, especially for rookie guard Tyler Smith. While Smith is projected to start day one for the Cowboys, he did play a little beyond the whistle as he was heavily penalized in college. Still, he is a tough kid and is coachable. Don’t worry about losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, as quarterback Dak Prescott will still have Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz to throw to. In the backfield, you still have the one-two punch in Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. “How bout dem Cowboys?”

#6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs signed two key free agents to help Brady in the passing game and with protection. Russell Gage fits the team perfectly and can play in an 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs). Also, with Ali Marpet’s sudden retirement, acquiring Brady’s former teammate Shaq Mason from the Patriots helps Brady reunite with an old teammate to help him from being sacked. Don’t expect much to change as this offensive unit will still remain one of the best as long as Brady can do his magic.

#5. Los Angeles Rams

This is a scenario where a team’s offensive ranking projections are down due to having a killer defense. Yes, Andrew Whitworth retired and should be a first ballot Hall of Famer projected by many experts. Head Coach Sean McVay still has great talent returning for the defending Super Bowl Champs.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford just set a Next Gen Stats single-season record against the blitz with a 139.6 passer rating. He also led the league with a 131.4 passer rating against man coverage. Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp has a laundry list of accolades from last season and I still see him being successful in 2022. Adding Allen Robinson in free agency and getting healthier at running back also helps create the best odds for winning the West with 11.5 projected wins. 

#4. Cincinnati Bengals

What a difference a year makes. We knew that quarterback Joe Burrow was going to be coming off ACL surgery, but what we didn’t know was that the Bengals were one drive away from beating the LA Rams in the Super Bowl.

This year, the answer is more clear. The Bengals sit at #4 because Joe Burrow will be back better than ever at quarterback and Joe Mixon will be running through their new improved O-line like a madman. Also, Jamar Chase will still ball out on the outside and Tee Higgens will be back for his third season as the team’s number two catcher and playmaker. “Who Dey”?

#3. Las Vegas Raiders

Now this might be a wildcard pick, but the Raiders unit that was led by quarterback Derek Carr was good enough to lead the team to the WildCard Playoff round. Unfortunately, they lost to the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow. The Raiders may have made the best head coaching hire in the NFL by stealing away former Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels. Sure, he only was 8-8 in 2009 with the Denver Broncos, but there were some bright spots. They included a win over his former boss Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots at home. That was back when he was only 38-years-old and wasn’t ready to be a full-time head coach in the NFL. Now, by going back to the Patriots and winning five Super Bowls with the “GOAT” Tom Brady, “plus one-year with Mac Jones”, McDaniels is now ready to be a head coach. Watch him turn the Raiders into an even better offensive juggernaut with Derek Carr at quarterback. 

#2. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers squeak by the Silver and Black here, because their offensive line is top-notch and they have their guy at quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert lit it up through the air as he and LA won in a shootout over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead last season.  Also returning is running back Austin Ekeler who had six touchdowns on the ground against heavy hitters. Star wide receiver Mike Williams who led the league with 18 catches and 320 yards on tight-window throws will also be returning. Look for Herbert to continue to prove that he can be near the top 3 in quarterbacks behind Mahomes and Allen.

#1. Buffalo Bills

Call me biased here, but I’m ranking the Bills number one based on human perception and their talent on offense. Minus Cole Beasley, the Bills are still loaded on offense and they might be better running the football this year. The Bills drafted Georgia running back James Cook in the second round of the NFL draft and he provides that speed back the Bills desperately need behind Devin Singletary. With a new offensive Coordinator in Ken Dorsey, rumors are he’s looking to add more twin tight ends to help the running game improve from last year. Also, they drafted Boise State Wide Receiver Kahil Shakir who Dorsey can use as a Jet sweep receiver, similar to how the 49ers use Deebo Samuel.

Of course, how could I forget to save the best for last. Quarterback Josh Allen who led the Bills to back-to-back AFC East Titles and nearly knocked out the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Playoff round. I think the Bills would have won the Super Bowl last year, because they would have beaten Cincinnati at home and then they would have won in a shootout against the Rams. 

Well, it’s time to move on to 2022 and the opening game on Thursday night. You guessed it, the Buffalo Bills @ the Los Angeles Rams. No need to tell you who I’m cheering for!

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7 thoughts on “NFL’s Top 12 Offenses for ‘23

  1. As long as allen’s passing game stays better than his golf game, it’s the Bills all day

  2. What no “Patriots”? Lol, very well written and fact/opinion filled (with logic). I like the “pass-filled league reference” . Name of today’s game is fast paced, action packed and (run-up-the-score) offenses and excitement. Lots of parallels to basketball and the onslaught of 3-point offenses which have evolved over the past several years. Of which, the game has changed, maybe not for the better, although hard to argue the box office and fan base revenues snd hysteria. Oh, now that we’re speaking Basketball-GO CELTICS!! Huge game tonight!
    Great read Jamie 👍

  3. Good content here! Of course your ranking Bills as #1 however I would like to see them pull it off this year as well.

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