Draft Prospect Comparisons Part 1

Here are my early comparisons for a few of your favorite draft prospects. Some of these may seem offensive or obscene, but it may come down to very specific details about the player such as their frame or mentality. This is NOT a draft or scouting report, but more of a way for draft casuals to get a feel for the next stars in the league. Anyway, enough talking, I will attempt to explain each
case as we go. Let’s get into it.


Floor: Potentially low future projection assuming the player will be drafted high.

Ceiling: If the player performs better than expected this is the best-case scenario.

Chet Holmgren

Gonzaga 2021-22 Stats:
GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
32 26.9 60.7 39.0 71.7 9.9 1.9 3.7 0.8 2.7 1.9 14.1

Floor:

Bol Bol
Career Stats:
GP GS MIN FG% 3P% FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
53 2 6.2 47.8 37.8 66.7 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 2.7


This seems borderline disrespectful for me to write, but hear me out. We all know the lore around Bol Bol and what some thought he could have been after showing glimpses of greatness at Oregon and in previous years. However, with his size and a frail frame, injuries and health issues seem inevitable. While Bol is still very young, he is averaging 2.7 ppg and 1.4 rebs in his career while only having played a total of 53 games since being drafted in 2019. Holmgren is arguably the player with the highest potential in the draft due to his 7’1 body that has shown guard-like tendencies.
However, for some reason, I could see us looking back years from now saying “if it weren’t for…” about his career.


Ceiling: Dirk Nowitzki
Career Stats:
GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
1522 33.8 47.1 38.0 87.9 7.5 2.4 0.8 0.8 2.4 1.6 20.7

Chet was the hardest player to find a ceiling comparison for, probably because we have never really seen a player like him. I have heard names floating around like Kristaps Porzingis, which while talking about a ceiling may be disrespectful. While KP is a one-time all-star with career averages of 18.9 ppg and 7.9 rebs, he has been shadowed by injuries and potentially unfair team situations.

The reason I bumped the ceiling up to a player of Dirk’s stature is not exactly his playstyle, but the impact he could have. Chet, much taller and lanky with an obvious skill deficiency in comparison to Dirk, can change a franchise’s future if used and developed correctly. Dirk single-handily lead the Mavericks during the 2000s-10s and earned an NBA championship while facing much adversity. Over his 22-year career, he totaled 14 all-star appearances, an MVP, Championship, 20.7 ppg, and
7.5 rebs. I can easily see Chet coming into a young franchise such as the Thunder or Rockets and completely changing their trajectory with his potential. If he could develop into a 33-40% three-point shooter at the NBA level while continuing to grow on the defensive end, the possibilities for Holmgren are endless

Author

  • calebanger

    Former college basketball player, sports enthusiast, and coach. Instagram: @calebanger Email: calbanger21@gmail.com

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